In 2022, China’s population fell for the first time in six decades, dropping from 1.4126 billion to 1.4118 billion, a decline of 850,000. This trend has accelerated, with losses of 2.08 million in 2023 and 1.39 million in 2024, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The United Nations projects a further decline of 204 million by 2054, and by 2100, China could lose over half its current population, falling by 786 million. This shift, driven by low birth rates and an ageing population, is reshaping labour markets, consumer demand, and business prospects. For UK firms, understanding these changes is key to thriving in China’s evolving market.

The decline stems from the One-Child Policy (1979–2015), which limited most families to one child, reducing the number of women of childbearing age and skewing gender ratios. Coupled with high living costs, shifting attitudes towards marriage, and the economic impact of COVID-19, China’s birth rate in 2024 was just 6.77 live births per 1,000 people, slightly up from 6.39 in 2023. Meanwhile, the population over 60 reached 310.3 million in 2024, up from 297 million, while the working-age population (16–59 years) dropped from 61.3% to 60.9%, totalling 858 million. By 2050, those over 65 are expected to double, straining social systems.

To counter this, China has rolled out policies to boost births and manage an ageing society. Since 2016, couples can have two children, expanded to three in 2021. Subsidies, like Shenzhen’s RMB 19,000 (£2,050) for families with one to three children, aim to encourage childbirth, alongside tax deductions and childcare support. However, these measures have yet to reverse the decline. Starting January 2025, China will raise retirement ages, men from 60 to 63, women from 50 to 55 (blue-collar) or 55 to 58 (white-collar) over 15 years, to address a shrinking workforce. The government is also investing in the “silver economy,” with policies like rent exemptions and tax breaks for eldercare providers, as outlined in the 2022 National Development and Reform Commission measures and the 2024 State Council’s Opinions on Developing a Silver Economy. A private pension scheme, launched in 2022 and expanded nationwide in 2024, offers tax incentives to ease pressure on public pensions. Additionally, China is pushing automation and “New Quality Productive Forces” (NQPFs), focusing on AI, robotics, and biotechnology to offset labour shortages.

This demographic shift challenges China’s economic model, once fuelled by a large, young workforce. With 734.4 million workers in 2024, labour shortages are not immediate, but industries like manufacturing and construction may face higher wages and shortages as younger workers shun manual labour. A smaller population could shrink consumer markets, with older citizens spending less. Yet, rising per capita income – RMB 41,314 (£3,550) in 2024 – and policies like the Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption and the dual circulation strategy are strengthening domestic demand. British brands like Burberry succeeded by tailoring products to local tastes, highlighting the need for adaptability.

Despite challenges, China’s ageing population creates opportunities for British businesses. The eldercare market, projected to reach £2.6 trillion by 2030, demands healthcare services, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. Healthcare Opportunities in China, allow UK firms like AstraZeneca to grow in China through local partnerships to meet these needs. Education is another growth area, with smaller families spending more on premium services and a shortage of skilled workers in technology, healthcare, and engineering. UK institutions are also helping to uskilling China’s workforce by expanding vocational training. China’s push for automation aligns with UK strengths in AI and robotics, as seen at the 2024 China International Import Expo, where British tech firms showcased innovative solutions.

To succeed, British businesses should invest in automation, partnering with Chinese firms to develop AI and robotics. Offering vocational training, diversifying products for an ageing, affluent market, and building local partnerships are critical. Flexible work arrangements can also attract talent in a competitive market. While China’s population decline poses risks like labour shortages and reduced consumer demand, it also opens doors in healthcare, education and technology. By staying agile and leveraging UK expertise, British firms can seize these opportunities in China’s changing landscape.

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The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislative body, announced on 13 September 2024 that the country would gradually increase the retirement age for men from 60 to 63, for women in white-collar jobs from 55 to 58, and for women in blue-collar jobs from 50 to 55. The adjustments will be gradually implemented over a 15-year period starting from January 2025​.

The primary driver behind this policy shift is China’s rapidly ageing population. The country faces a shrinking workforce and a growing number of retirees, putting pressure on its pension system, as well as the elderly care system.

The results of China’s latest census in 2020 showed significant population ageing, with people over the age of 65 accounting for 13.5% of the Chinese population, an increase of 4.6% from the 2010 census. Birth rates are also falling, putting further strain on the population.

By raising the retirement age, China hopes to alleviate some of the financial strain on its pension system by bolstering the working-age population​. In 2020, China’s Social Security Administration predicted that its pension fund could be depleted by as early as 2035 unless remedial measures were taken. Indeed, in addition to raising the retirement age, China also announced that the minimum number of years needed to pay into a pension will increase from 15 to 20 years (which will come into effect in 2030).

This move will also align China with international norms. Neighbouring countries with similar demographic challenges, such as Japan and South Korea, have already adjusted their retirement ages.

Although the reform aims to secure long-term economic stability, it has sparked some criticism, with both young and old complaining of the longer working years. Others are worried about the implications for youth unemployment, which had already reached record highs in summer 2023. However, Chinese officials argue that the gradual implementation of the changes will prevent sudden impacts on job opportunities for younger workers​.

China’s ageing population prompts a number of considerations for British companies looking at the China market.

British consumer brands, for example, may want to consider how their products may benefit or appeal to an ageing population that, on the one hand, will remain wage-earning consumers for longer and, on the other hand, may find itself without the kind of family and community-based support system that previous generations had access to.

Indeed, in January 2024, the Chinese government unveiled a series of 26 guidelines to encourage the development of a “silver economy” catering to older people. Health-related consumption is likely to account for the biggest share of spending in this “silver economy”, presenting opportunities for British companies in the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, as well as robotics and AI. Sales of home healthcare devices for older adults have already shown an increase in recent years, as have sales of dietary supplements and cosmetics with ‘anti-ageing’ properties.

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Beijing-based think tank YuWa Population Research has estimated that the average cost of raising a child to the age of 18 is RMB 538,000 (£58,900), more than six times China’s GDP per capita*. The report found that only South Korea is more expensive to raise a child, where the average cost is 7.79 times GDP per capita.

A similar report by the UK’s Child Poverty Action Group estimated that the average cost of raising a child to 18 in the UK is £166,000 per couple, or £220,000 for a single parent.

The cost of raising a child in China has been driven up by high housing prices, a lack of affordable nursery services, and the pressure to sign up for extracurricular activities and tutoring services to ensure that a child succeeds academically. These problems are compounded in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where the report found the average cost of raising a child was RMB 936,000, almost twice the national average.

The report also emphasised the time and opportunity costs of childbearing for women, with many seeing a significant reduction in wages and hours worked after having a child.

The report comes after demographic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed China’s population falling for a second consecutive year last year. The population decline of 0.15% – or 2.08 million people – to 1.409 billion in 2023 was well over the 850,000-person drop seen in 2022, which was China’s first decline in population since 1961. Total new births fell 5.7% to 9.02 million in 2023, while deaths rose 6.6% to 11.1 million.

The country’s crude birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people puts it on a par with South Korea and Japan, which have been among the countries with the lowest birth rates for the past few decades (by comparison, the crude birth rates in the UK and US are around 10-11 per 1,000).

* For more information on how the report calculated these figures, see section 2, “估算全国家庭孩子 0-17 岁的平均养育成本”.

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The population decline of 0.15% – or 2.08 million people – to 1.409 billion in 2023 was well over the 850,000-person drop seen in 2022, which was China’s first decline in population since 1961. Total new births fell 5.7% to 9.02 million in 2023, while deaths rose 6.6% to 11.1 million.

The country’s crude birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people puts it on a par with South Korea and Japan, which have been among the countries with the lowest birth rates for the past few decades (by comparison, the crude birth rates in the UK and US are around 10-11 per 1,000).

Fertility in China has been declining for decades but has been compounded in recent years by high youth unemployment, the high cost of things like housing and education, and the post-Covid economic downturn. GDP figures released at the same time as the population data showed that the Chinese economy grew 5.2% in 2023, the lowest rate since 1990 (excluding the main pandemic years). Gender discrimination and expectations that women will assume caregiving roles (both for children and elderly parents) are also discouraging women from having children.

The falling birth rate has already prompted action at the national policy level, including the end of the one-child policy (increased to three in 2022) and monthly or one-off payments for second or third children in several provincial cities. Some demographers – including the vice-president of the China Population Association – have speculated that we will see a small bump in the figures for this year as people like to have children born in the auspicious Chinese zodiac Year of the Dragon, which starts in February, but this is unlikely to have a major effect on the overall figures.

It is clear that China’s current strategies are doing little to encourage births, so it will have to turn its attention to the other end of the age spectrum: the ageing population.

As its population ages, China will have to rethink its economic structure while also considering issues such as the stress an older population will put on its healthcare and pension systems.

Indeed, on 15 January, the Chinese government unveiled a series of 26 guidelines to encourage the development of a “silver economy” catering to older people, who now account for 21.1% of the population. Health-related consumption is likely to account for the biggest share of spending in this “silver economy”, presenting opportunities for British companies in the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, as well as robotics and AI. Sales of home healthcare devices for older adults have already shown an increase during Singles’ Day in recent years, as have sales of dietary supplements and cosmetics with ‘anti-ageing’ properties.

The falling birth rate also prompts several considerations for British consumer brands looking at the China market. Young, childless urban residents remain a broad market with strong spending power. Instead of planning and saving for children, Gen Z and younger millennials are increasingly choosing to live life on their own terms and spend money on themselves, whether that be on hobbies and sports like camping, yoga and skiing, wellness and self-care products, or even on their pets.

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In recent years, the concept of reproductive climate concerns has gradually ignited public debate and attracted academic attention around the world. The issues fall under the umbrella of “eco-reproductive concerns”, along with issues such as ecosystem collapse, pollution, health and justice.

Reproductive climate concerns are being widely discussed not just in developed nations like the US, UK and Australia, but increasingly among young people in developing countries such as India, the Philippines and Brazil.

In 2021, a survey of over 10,000 young people in ten countries was conducted by universities and research institutes, including Bath and Stanford universities. The results show that the climate crisis is causing serious mental distress to young people, with 41% hesitant to have children.

If I have a child whom I love, yet at the same time the world keeps getting worse… I don’t know if I’d regret bringing the child into this world — Zi Xuan, 26, unsure whether to have children

Reproductive climate concerns are also gradually emerging among younger Chinese people. At the end of 2020, Fu Xiyao, Matthew Schneider-Mayerson and Marvin Joseph F. Montefrio used an online questionnaire to survey 173 people in China who were concerned or alarmed about climate change. Most of the respondents were urban residents and women between 21 and 35, the majority of whom had at least a bachelor’s degree, and one-fifth of whom were already parents.

Although the survey was targeted only at climate-concerned or -alarmed citizens, the study is the first to explore the multiple associations and influences between climate change and reproductive choice among young Chinese, and shed light on their perception of, thoughts about, and actions around climate change.

Multiple reproductive concerns about climate change

In January 2023, the China Meteorological Administration said that the climate in China during 2022 was clearly anomalous, with numerous extreme weather events. The temperatures in summer reached record highs, but there were also frequent autumnal cold snaps. While total overall precipitation decreased nationally, torrential rainstorms were still common, leading to disastrous flooding in southern and north-eastern China. In summer 2021, the country witnessed heavy rainstorms in Henan, while in 2022 a continuous heatwave swept over most of China, alongside extensive, historic drought in the Yangtze River Basin.

Climate change is and will increasingly exacerbate air pollution, disease outbreaks, drought, flooding, and the melting of glaciers, among other consequences. Reproductive climate concerns are based on people’s perceptions of and expectations for the future. Nearly 30% of respondents to the survey reported being “very concerned” or “extremely concerned” with the climate impacts their children or potential children might witness or experience. One-third (34.1%) said climate change was a “major factor” affecting their reproductive choices, while two-thirds (61.8%) said it was a “minor factor”. Only 3.4% said that climate change had “no impact at all” on their reproductive choices. Participants were more concerned about the potential future impacts of climate change on their children than about the impact of having children on the environment.

The objects of young Chinese people’s reproductive climate concerns can be put into three main categories: degradation of future living environments; threat to physical and mental health; and indirect social, political and economic consequences.

Firstly, they worry that ecological and climatic changes will render the world increasingly uninhabitable for their children. One 23-year-old graduate student said: “Extreme weather will become even more common, and [I] don’t want my children living in a world of heatwaves, or bitter cold, or days without the sun.” While a respondent from Shanghai said: “There must be a way to mitigate the carbon footprint of giving birth and raising a child, and this should be constantly explored. But in the future my children will have to face huge climate crises and environmental changes, and I worry if they’ll be able to adapt to such a society, or avoid diseases caused by pollution.”

The health of my parents’ generation was affected by industrial pollution and environmental damage. I chose to leave my hometown but… climate change is a global issue. When the nest is upset, no egg is left intact — Chen Feng, 40, father of one

Regarding the effects of climate change on physical and mental health, many respondents mentioned the personal impact of pollution on themselves and their parents. Chen Feng, 40, from Chengdu said: “Actually, the health of my parents’ generation was affected by industrial pollution and environmental damage. I chose to leave my hometown but, while local environmental problems can be avoided by relocating, climate change is a global issue. When the nest is upset, no egg is left intact.”

For many respondents, environmental pollution is either a current problem or a recent memory. So the ecological or environmental degradation that might accompany climate change fills them with fear and anxiety for their children’s prospects. When considering the world his own potential child would live in, Zhang Yong, a civil servant from Guangdong, is worried about “the impact of rising temperatures on the ecological environment, as well as ecological imbalance and a succession of novel diseases.”

Some respondents also worried that climate change could create or worsen social and political crises. Zilong, a 31-year-old consultant and father, wrote: “The indirect impacts of climate change, such as on biodiversity or food security, could well trigger inter-state conflicts. My child’s generation is likely to be affected.” A university student from Beijing believes that in a future of climate change “international, geopolitical conflicts will become increasingly intense, with diseases and resource scarcity caused by the environmental crisis possibly becoming the core of conflicts.”

Taken together, respondents show concern that climate change will directly or indirectly affect every facet of both natural and social environments, becoming a factor that cannot be overlooked when raising children.

Some respondents said that, in the face of multiple health, ecological and social crises, it would be difficult to bring children into the world responsibly. Zi Xuan, 26, said: “If I have a child whom I love, yet at the same time the world keeps getting worse… I don’t know if I’d regret bringing that child into this world.”

Ziyu, 27, works in impact investment and said: “Children may complete your life, but that’s your life. What about your children’s? Perhaps we should reconsider having children, if our legacy to them is one of conflict, disasters, disease, and manifold unknown threats and risks to society. Especially if someone like myself, who cares about climate change and even works in the field, cannot lead by example and contribute to reducing emissions. Then how much hope is there for the world?”

Picturing 2050

Climate change scenarios over the next few decades are closely linked to national plans for emissions reduction and adaptation measures, but the prevailing global situation is grim. Current worldwide government plans to reduce emissions will lead to average global temperatures rising by 2.4C to 2.6C, far above the “safe” limit of 1.5C agreed in Paris seven years ago, according to estimates by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The survey asked an open-ended question to gauge respondents’ expectations for the future: “What do you think the world will be like in 2050?” Out of 138 valid responses collected in 2020, 28.3% were positive, 22.5% mixed or neutral, and 49.3% predominantly negative.

Many of the positive replies mentioned technological development, policy changes, and increased public environmental awareness. A disease control and quarantine worker from Yunnan wrote that “with the swiftly developing economy, everything can be automated. Society is highly cultured, with everyone possessing at least basic awareness of environmental protection. There are more built environments than natural ones.” Mixed or neutral replies contained both positive and negative elements. A 31-year-old consultant from Shenzhen said that “less developed cities have pollution and waste problems, while developed cities are already transitioning to clean energy as they enter a phase of green growth.”

[Climate change] will only make [raising children] harder. Reproductive choice depends on economics and security, but these are also affected by climate change — Wang Qiang, 38, would like to have children

Among the negative descriptions, Chen Yanping, a 38-year-old consultant from Shanghai, describes his cyberpunk vision of the future: “Science and technology is pretty advanced but the wealth gap is increasing. Problems caused by ageing populations are even more pressing, all while global governance is unstable and there’s rapacious plundering of natural resources. Pollution is serious, artificial protection measures are widespread, mass extinctions events are growing.”

Emma, a 27-year-old investor, described the potential social upheaval that could occur in a crisis: “Climate change ought to be the main global concern in 2050. I think the world’s population will have already decreased a lot by then, and economies will be severely affected by the growing number of people fleeing disasters and climate change. I always imagine the world will already be burning by then, and there’ll be a huge change in society and lifestyle. People’s attention will be forced away from mobile phones and social media and onto real society.”

What actions can an individual take?

Climate change is not the principal factor influencing young Chinese people’s reproductive choices. Over half the respondents cited childcare time, resources, and family income in determining whether and how many children to have. Only 22% cited environmental pollution, and 15.6% cited climate change.

However, climate change’s impact on social, economic and health factors might indirectly influence reproductive considerations. A 35-year-old human resources manager in Shanghai commented: “I feel that instead of saying ‘choice’, we can go one step further and ask whether climate change fundamentally impacts fertility. Living in Shanghai, I have an irregular work schedule, insufficient exercise, and too much pressure which, alongside environmental problems and late marriage, can all lead to fertility problems.”

In other words, between climate change and reproductive choice, there are multiple interconnected factors which influence each other, and these are likely to grow over time. Yun Xi, a 28-year-old sustainable development consultant said: “I’d say environmental factors certainly affect me. My current attitude [to having children] is to ‘wait and see’, though I have an uneasy feeling that either our generation or the next will see the whole world get cancer. I don’t want to leave such a planet for my children, nor leave so many children for the planet.”

At the same time, reproductive choice itself might influence people’s actions towards environmental issues and climate change. “When you have a baby, you definitely think about the next generation. I hope that through the efforts of this generation, we’ll be able to at least maintain things as they are now, and not let them deteriorate,” wrote a 29-year-old entrepreneur.

Despite the fact that climate change figures in the reproductive concerns of many, very few respondents believed that having fewer or no children is effective in tackling climate change. The majority believed that, compared with actions on an individual level, those of countries and corporations have a greater impact on climate, and thus they should be bearing responsibility for tackling climate change. As stated by a 22-year-old university student: “For a child born into a moderate family, the environmental burden of childrearing is negligible when compared with big business or macro policies.” When asked who should bear the greatest responsibility for addressing climate change, over 60% of respondents ranked “government” first, and over 40% ranked “business” second. Only 15% and 12% ranked “individuals” first and second respectively.

Of the three climate actions considered most effective at the individual level, almost half of respondents chose recycling and reducing waste. Fewer than one-third chose purchasing products with a smaller carbon footprint, or making dietary adjustments, while around one-fifth chose promoting sustainable development through their own efforts, or by using energy-efficient appliances. By comparison, only 3.4% selected having a smaller family.

While government and business are widely believed to bear most of the responsibility for addressing climate change, young people have not given up on individual initiative. In the face of huge uncertainties brought about by climate change, and the resultant reproductive concerns, they are seeking change through their lifestyles, consumption habits, and even their careers. They are exploring what it means to live sustainably, and what different futures could be possible. In the Anthropocene, how top-down systemic change and bottom-up individual action can work in tandem to mitigate and adapt to climate change is an important subject to which our responses will directly impact the next generation’s survival and wellbeing.

This article was originally published on China Dialogue under the Creative Commons BY NC ND licence.

Call +44 (0)20 7802 2000 or email enquiries@cbbc.org now to find out how CBBC’s market research and analysis services can provide you with the information you need to succeed in China.

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Newly-released official data shows that China’s birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since records began. According to the 2022 edition of the China Statistical Yearbook, just 10.62 million babies were born in China in 2021 and 13 provinces reported negative population growth, including the dynamic eastern coastal regions of Jiangsu and Tianjin. Fertility has  been declining for decades but has been compounded in recent years by higher costs of living and increasing work pressure on young people. 

This latest news about the birth rate comes shortly after the results of the once-in-a-decade census in May 2021 showed that the fertility rate dropped to 1.3 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population, a problem that China shares with neighbouring countries like South Korea and Japan. The falling birthrate has already prompted action at the national policy level, including the end of the one-child policy (increased to three just after the release of the census) and monthly or one-off payments for second or third children in several provincial cities.

A declining population poses a challenge for the world’s second-largest economy, which has long relied on a plentiful and ambitious workforce to fuel its industrial and economic growth. The population is ageing rapidly, with people over the age of 65 now accounting for 13.5% of the population, an increase of 4.6% from the 2010 census. As its work-age labour pool shrinks, China may have to rethink its economic strategies, while also considering issues such as the stress an older population will put on its healthcare and pension systems. Indeed, the Chinese government’s latest reform proposals aim to establish a market for individual pension plans — offering attractive new opportunities for UK insurers and financial institutions — which will probably speed up the volume of assets under management by private pension funds and help establish the Third Pillar in China’s pension system. 

The falling birth rate also prompts several considerations for British companies or brands looking at the China market. Young, childless urban residents remain a strong potential market, especially for consumer goods brands. Instead of planning and saving for children, Gen Z and younger millennials are increasingly choosing to spend money on themselves, whether that be on hobbies and sports like camping, yoga or skiing, wellness and self-care products, or even pets. 

However, aside from tapping into millennial/Gen Z spending, brands may also want to consider how their products may benefit or appeal to an ageing population that may find itself without the kind of family and community-based support system that previous generations had access to. Sales of home healthcare devices for older adults are reported to have increased during the Singles’ Day sales, and there has also been a marked growth in sales of dietary supplements and cosmetics with ‘anti-ageing’ properties in recent years. 

Call +44 (0)20 7802 2000 or email enquiries@cbbc.org now to find out how CBBC can further help you identify the best e-commerce platform for your brand and target market in China.

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The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released the results of its once-in-a-decade census on Tuesday, 11 May 2021. The Seventh National Population Census, which was completed in December, showed a population increase of approximately 5.4% from 1.34 billion in 2010 to 1.41 billion (in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities of the Chinese mainland). In comparison, the population grew by 5.8% in the period leading up to 2010 and maintained double-digit growth in the first five censuses since the first National Population Census of the People’s Republic of China in 1953. The slowdown was expected, although it was in fact less severe than some analysts predicted.

The census showed that 1,430,695 foreigners (845,697) and residents of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan live on the mainland, a notable rise of over 250,000 compared with 10 years ago. Guangdong province leads with the largest number of foreign and Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents at 418,509, while Shanghai has 163,954 and Beijing 62,812. Beijing, in particular, has seen a steep drop in the number of foreigners living in the city, down from 107,445 in 2010.

In addition to an overall slowdown in the population growth rate, China’s birth rate also dropped, suggesting that this trend is likely to continue in the years ahead. Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million babies last year, down 18% from 14.65 million in 2019. The fertility rate dropped to 1.3 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population, a problem that China shares with neighbouring countries like South Korea and Japan. The falling birthrate has already prompted action at the national policy level, including the end of the one-child policy (lifting the limit to two) at the beginning of 2016.

This demographic stalling poses a challenge for the world’s second-largest economy, which has long relied on a plentiful and ambitious workforce to fuel its industrial and economic growth. The population is ageing rapidly, with people over the age of 65 now accounting for 13.5% of the population, an increase of 4.6% from the 2010 census. As its work-age labour pool shrinks, China may have to rethink its economic strategies, while also considering issues such as the stress an older population will put on its healthcare and pension systems. 

The census data prompts several considerations for British companies or brands looking to the China market. Younger urban dwellers who are increasingly choosing not to have children and instead spend time and money on themselves remain a strong potential market, especially for higher-end consumer goods brands. However, brands may also want to consider how their products may benefit or appeal to an ageing population that may find itself without the kind of family and community-based support system that previous generations had access to.

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