Wen Xu recalls first climbing Muztagh Ata in Kashgar prefecture, Xinjiang, back in 2004. “The snow was thigh deep and we had to use snowshoes to spread our weight. Snow bridges allowed us to cross crevasses.”

The scientist and explorer has now made the trip a dozen times, to collect ice cores and bear witness to the impacts of the climate crisis. “That thick snow is now a mix of hard snow and bare ice,” he says. “We need crampons to get around up there now. The snow bridges have gradually disappeared, while the crevasses have got wider and deeper, forcing us to make long diversions to avoid them.”

Glacier melt has been accelerating in this arid north-western part of China in recent years. By 2050, glaciers smaller than half a square kilometre will disappear here, according to the latest research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Tianshan Glaciological Station. That is under any climate change scenario, and taking into account possible increases in precipitation.

Experts interviewed by Dialogue Earth say glacial melt is an important symbol of global warming. Smaller glaciers may be doomed no matter what we do, but they become alert beacons for climate action as they diminish. The only effective solution to global glacier loss is rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the experts say.

Meanwhile, UNESCO has proclaimed 2025 the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation, with 21 March to become World Glacier Day.

What happens when a mountain glacier melts?

China’s glaciers are mostly to be found on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. By their seasonal melt, they feed rivers including the Yangtze, Yellow, and Yarlung Tsangpo (which flows on to become the Brahmaputra). Surveys show that between the 1970s and 2010, a fifth of China’s total glacial area melted permanently, meaning 12,442 square kilometres of glacier loss.

Dialogue Earth consulted Tian Lide, a researcher at Yunnan University’s Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security. “When we talk about glaciers melting, people think that means rising sea levels,” he said. “But that’s a risk primarily from ice caps melting in Antarctica, where 90% of the world’s ice is found, and Greenland, second in terms of ice volume.”

Mountain glaciers have nevertheless been melting with surprising speed, and with a more direct impact on human activity, Tian explains. The melt causes more water to flow, with ice dams forming at the ends of the glacier. When those dams collapse in a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), there can be catastrophic consequences for those living and farming downstream.

Melting mountain glaciers can also trigger dangerous ice avalanches. In July 2016, a collapse in the Ngari prefecture of western Tibet caused 600 million cubic metres of glacier to fail. Nine people from local herding families who were grazing their livestock on summer pastures were killed.

A much less obvious result of this glacial melt is methane. Between May 2022 and July 2023, a team of Chinese researchers analysed gas taken from the ice caves and meltwaters of the Laohugou No. 12 glacier – the largest valley glacier on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau’s Qilian Mountains. Their study found that methane levels were two to three times higher than atmospheric background levels. Conversely, CO2 levels were about 2.5 times lower. This may be because the fine sediment scraped from glaciers is rich in minerals. As the sediment mixes with meltwater and atmospheric gas, it undergoes “chemical weathering” which induces CO2 absorption.

However, across a 100-year period, methane’s global warming potential is 28 times that of CO2, rising to 84 across 20 years. The methane levels at the Laohuguou No. 12 glacier prompted a headline in The Paper saying “Melting mountain glaciers are pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere like chimneys.”

Early warnings

The results of a seven-year scientific survey of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, involving a 28,000-strong expedition team, were published in August last year. They concluded that the region is getting warmer, wetter and greener. It is also getting darker. As glaciers and snow melts, and vegetation spreads, the land becomes less reflective and absorbs yet more heat.

Adequate management of downstream rivers requires more accurate and timely warnings of disasters like ice avalanches and glacial lake failures, the survey found.

Early warning is currently the best way to reduce the damage of these disasters. When an ice avalanche blocked the flow of the Yarlung Zangbo River in 2018, scientists were able to keep a close eye on the situation with sensors and from helicopters to ensure local people were moved away from the danger. The blockage was eased 56 hours later when the water overcame it, with no loss of life.

The following year, China devised a way to monitor such blockages on the Yarlung Zangbo. Ten-metre-high monitoring towers were installed at vulnerable sites to provide regular observations in all weathers. Real-time monitoring of water levels also began. As of May 2024, five early warnings had been issued.

Glaciers and water security

The Taklamakan is China’s largest desert. Yet in August 2024, this north-western expanse flooded. Lü Xinsheng, chief forecaster at the Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, told media that high temperatures are rapidly melting the snowpack and glaciers surrounding the desert. The tributaries of the Tarim River swelled and the river eventually burst its banks, turning parts of the Taklamakan into temporary inland seas.

This is not the first time the Taklamakan has flooded. In August 2022, a lake appeared in the southern portion of the desert, causing some people online to speculate incorrectly that climate change could turn the desert into something like an oasis. Chen Yaning, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Xinjiang Ecology and Geography Institute, says: “Changes to glaciers and the hydrological cycle caused by the climate will increase the uncertainty of water supplies, while glacial melting will impact on future water security in the area.”

The aforementioned Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Tianshan Glaciological Station research reaches a similar conclusion. Faster melting will increase the flow of water through rivers, to a point. But once these flows have peaked, they will go into a steady decline.

“Many are worried that their sources of water will dry up once the glaciers are gone,” says Tian Lide. “It depends on the river, though. Glacial and snow melt accounts for almost 80% of the water flowing into the Indus [River]. But glacial meltwater from the Sanjiangyuan (Three River Source) region accounts for 9.13% of the flow of the Yangtze, and 2.24% of the Yellow River’s flow. In many cases, glacial melt accounts for only a small part of a river’s total flow – most of the water comes directly from precipitation.”

Tian explains how precipitation and glacial meltwaters contribute to rivers in different ways: heavy rainfall will quickly increase river levels and may cause floods, but levels will fall equally quickly when rains ease; glaciers are a more stable source of water because they melt steadily, thus providing a sustained water source for those living downstream.

Glacial melt also plays a big role in regulating seasonal changes. In the cold of winter, glaciers grow. As temperatures rise in summer, they release more water, providing a steady source of water when it is needed most. That function will weaken as glaciers diminish, meaning droughts and floods could become more frequent and intense.

What can be done?

Scientists have tried a number of methods to slow glacial melt.

In 2023 and 2024, Chinese scientists attempted to “wrap up” the Tianshan No. 1 glacier. This involved laying insulating and reflective materials (often textiles) on the glacier’s surface to keep it cool and slow the melting.

Similar techniques have been used since the early 2000s to protect glaciers in the Alps. Research has found that wrapping can reduce snow and ice melting by 50-70%.

Commenting for a 2023 Scientific American article, glaciologist Matthais Huss from the University of Fribourg said the textiles approach is only worthwhile in lucrative ski areas. It is not feasible to cover the world’s glaciers in this way. Huss calculated that covering Switzerland’s 1,000 largest glaciers could prevent two thirds of the volume of ice lost every year, but would cost US$ 1.52 billion annually.

In September, a Chinese Academy of Sciences research team took a snow-making machine to the Dagu Glacier in Sichuan Province. The team aimed to turn Dagu’s meltwater back into snow and thereby slow its shrinkage. The outcomes of the intervention remain unclear. But Tian tells Dialogue Earth that, regardless, such methods are only currently suitable for glaciers of value to, for example, science or tourism. They cannot reverse the overall global trend of glacial loss. He says the only way to do that is by rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

A 2022 UNESCO report agrees. In the long term, its authors say, a third of the glaciers across UNESCO’s World Heritage glacierised sites will disappear by 2050, regardless of any measures taken. If global warming can be limited to 1.5C relative to pre-industrial levels, it adds, there is hope that the remaining two-thirds could be saved.

Priceless ice

Alongside their efforts to slow melting, Yunnan University glaciologists are racing to collect ice cores from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Such material could yield potentially vital climate data. For example, analysis of air bubbles trapped in the ice can enable scientists to infer historical temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations.

Many countries are preserving ice cores taken from polar or mountain glaciers in cold stores at research institutions or universities, but risks remain. In 2017, a freezer failure at the University of Alberta in Canada damaged part of the world’s largest collection of ice core samples from the Canadian Arctic. Some scientists have come up with a safer way of storing these samples: a vault has been built in Antarctica, where ice cores can be stored, hopefully, forever.

Wen Xu explains that current technology only allows limited data to be extracted from ice cores. With the glaciers still melting, future researchers may not be able to obtain ice cores themselves. The stored cores, however, will be available and could be studied using advanced techniques not yet developed. “These will be valuable research materials for future study,” he says.

This article was originally published by Dialogue Earth with the title What chance for China’s melting glaciers?

The post Can China’s glaciers survive rising global temperatures? appeared first on Focus - China Britain Business Council.

The COP28 UN climate conference, taking place from 30 November to 12 December in Dubai, will bring countries together to discuss measures to reduce warming emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

The key topic of the conference is likely to be how to close the gap between current plans for emission reduction and what is needed to put the world on a path to rein in global warming.

Experts have told China Dialogue that China will face “increasing pressure” at COP28 on issues such as enhancing its climate action, as well as its involvement in the “loss and damage” fund, designed to compensate countries in the global south for unavoidable climate change impacts. At the same time, they expect China to push the world to meet more ambitious goals for both renewable energy development and loss and damage.

Ahead of COP28, experts see collaboration between the US and China as key to combating global warming. So will they deliver another joint message of unity on climate action, as they did at the Paris and Glasgow COPs of 2015 and 2021?

A world falling short on climate action

The collective effort of countries to lower emissions is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C or 2°C warming thresholds decided at the 2015 Paris COP. That was the verdict of a recent report on the UN’s first stocktake of global climate action. It offered guidance on how plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – towards reaching the Paris goals might be updated and enhanced.

According to the report, to keep the 1.5°C target achievable, by 2030, the world needs to have reduced its annual emissions by a further 20.3-23.9 billion tonnes of CO2 compared to current NDC commitments.

There will naturally be concern about whether China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, will update its NDC and step up efforts to reduce emissions. But experts say that, given it did so in 2020, it may not do so significantly again any time soon. Chris Aylett, coordinator of the Environment and Society Centre at UK-based think-tank Chatham House, says China’s focus is on the enormous task of implementation, rolling out the policies and technologies needed to meet the carbon peaking and neutrality targets set by President Xi in 2020.

However, this doesn’t mean there won’t be pressure on China at COP28 to do more, Aylett notes. The EU has recently called on China to commit to the Global Methane Pledge, launched at Glasgow COP26 in 2021, as well as to the global goal of tripling renewable energy deployment by 2030, featured in the recent G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration. The US has called on China to contribute to multilateral climate finance, something it has resisted thus far on the principle that as a developing country, which it defines itself as, it is not required to.

“China has an established preference for underpromising and overdelivering on its climate targets, and has made clear that it will not yield to external pressure,” Aylett explains. “In parallel, Chinese officials have been critical of what they consider ‘rich-world underperformance’ on climate change.”

China could, however, announce some additional measures such as its own long-awaited methane control plan, and a raised target for renewable energy installed capacity, says Li Shuo, senior global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia.

In the joint declaration made with the US in Glasgow, China stated it would create a comprehensive national action plan to reduce methane emissions from fossil energy sources, the waste sector, and agriculture. The central government says the plan is still being developed, while industry insiders say a draft has long been finalised. The delay in announcing it may have been influenced by the rocky US–China relationship or China’s negotiating tactics on climate issues.

While the release of the methane plan is slightly behind schedule, the growth in China’s installed wind and solar power is significantly ahead. Given this trend, Li Shuo said, “it is widely believed that it will be no problem at all to reach the wind and solar installation targets in China’s NDC. So, will China raise this target? Such expectations still exist.”

China has an established preference for underpromising and overdelivering on its climate targets, and has made clear that it will not yield to external pressure
Chris Aylett, Chatham House

Contributing to global renewable energy targets

The success of the climate conference will be measured in part by how well it moves the needle on the fossil fuel phasedown, and whether more ambitious renewable energy deployment targets are set.

Aylett thinks China is unlikely to sign up to the language of fossil fuel ‘phaseout’ that the EU and others will advocate for at COP28. Meanwhile, Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change affairs, has said that phasing out fossil fuels is “unrealistic”. Following the severe power outages the country experienced in 2021, estimated to have affected as much as 44% of industrial activity, Chinese energy policy is today organised around the principle of “establishing the new before destroying the old” – retiring fossil fuel infrastructure only when the new low-carbon system is fully in place.

However, as the world’s number one manufacturer of solar panels and wind turbines, Aylett thinks China “certainly has an incentive” to push for a more ambitious renewables target.

In the first half of this year, the country’s wind and solar installed capacity reached 820 gigawatts (GW). Meanwhile, its total renewable power capacity exceeded 1,300 GW, or 48.8% of total power capacity, putting it ahead of coal power. China’s wind and solar power is expected to reach its 1,200 GW target by 2025, five years earlier than planned, found a report by think-tank Global Energy Monitor.

China has the potential to push the world to reach a more ambitious 2030 target for renewable energy installations under the UN’s climate process, says Yao Zhe, strategic communications director at the Institute for Global Decarbonisation Progress (iGDP), a Beijing-based think-tank.

At the G20 Summit in September, nations including China agreed to “pursue and encourage efforts” to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and “accelerate efforts towards phasedown of unabated coal power”. But it set no binding, country-specific climate targets.

According to Yao Zhe, if the world can agree on a target for installed renewable energy capacity at COP28, it would favour China given the country’s domestic progress on this front. “Having such an expectation will drive the market, which will benefit China’s industrial exports, as well as cooperation with supply chains in other countries,” said Yao Zhe.

US–China climate cooperation

Whether China and the US can make new progress in climate cooperation will be a major point of interest at the COP. Since 2013, when the US-China Climate Change Working Group was established, climate issues have generally been a cooperation “safe zone”. John Kerry, the US president’s special envoy on climate change, has repeatedly said that climate is a key mutual issue, independent of any disagreements the two countries may have.

Kerry’s visit to China in July marked the first time the two countries have touched on climate matters since the suspension of US-China climate talks in August last year. Since then, the world has been waiting for China and the US to resume working together on climate issues.

Li Shuo told China Dialogue that if relations remain stable for the rest of the year, the two countries may issue a joint statement at COP28 that includes unilateral, bilateral and multilateral elements. This would follow the example of the joint presidential statement made in the lead up to the successful Paris COP of 2015, as well as the Glasgow statement of 2021.

The two countries could announce measures on climate assistance and investment, overseas energy, as well as cooperation on joint research and information sharing regarding low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and storage, Li Shuo says, adding that because US-China climate talks are ongoing, it may be challenging for the two sides to reach a joint statement under the current complicated international situation. “Even if a joint statement can be reached, it will be difficult for it to be as groundbreaking as the 2015 [one]. It may be more about paving the way for negotiations rather than setting the tone for the global process.”

Aylett thinks the value of US–China talks is arguably more symbolic than substantive. “They represent the importance of putting differences to one side to tackle a shared challenge, and keep alive the spirit of cooperation between the two superpowers that was critical to the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015,” he said.

China can play a big role in enabling the rollout of renewable energy across the African regionMarina Agortimevor, African Coal Network

Loss and damage, and alternatives

Whether or not China will inject money into the “loss and damage” fund – designed to compensate developing countries for unavoidable climate impacts – has been the focus of international attention.

African countries have been pushing developed ones to contribute to loss and damage compensation. A report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicts that Africa’s loss and damage for 2020-2030 will cost between US$290 billion and $440 billion.

According to the UN climate process principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, states are not equally responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, and China’s ‘developing country’ status means it is not obliged to pay into the fund. However, since the formation of the convention 30 years ago, the country’s economic position and emissions have grown rapidly, and it is currently the second-largest economy and top emitter. This has led developed economies such as the US and European Union to argue that it should also pay into the fund.

China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua declared at last year’s COP27 that China does not have the “responsibility” to contribute financially to loss and damage. But given the large sums China has invested in building infrastructure overseas through its Belt and Road Initiative, there is clear potential for it to contribute further towards supporting development in Africa.

“China can play a big role in enabling the rollout of renewable energy across the African region,” says Marina Agortimevor, coordinator of the African Coal Network, a network of civil society organisations working on the energy transition.

She believes Africa could benefit from China’s support for renewable energy, not only in terms of infrastructure, but also skills and technology development. “We’ve seen the possibility of a comprehensive strategy around renewable energy that includes job creation, enabling local manufacturing and skills development.”

The same is true for developing infrastructure that reduces and adapts to climate change.

Aylett says, in lieu of paying into the loss and damage fund, China can contribute to the fund’s overarching aim, of enabling vulnerable countries to recover from climate impacts, by directing investment and technical cooperation under the BRI towards climate-resilient development. If substantial and sufficiently visible, this could increase the pressure on developed countries to do more, he adds.

Recently, China released a white paper, “Policies and Actions to Address Climate Change”, in which it stated that the country would push for COP28 to reach a decision on a global framework of adaptation targets, and finalise the financial mechanism for loss and damage and related financing arrangements.

Yao Zhe told China Dialogue that, along with other big emitters, China will continue to be under pressure from the international community on loss and damage this year. “China would like to see less finger-pointing and pressure,” she believes.

At the last COP, Yao says, some developed countries shifted attention to large developing emitters in order to reduce pressure on themselves. This kind of practice cannot solve the problem and can undermine mutual trust, she says. Nevertheless, China can play a crucial role in promoting more constructive communication on loss and damage, she adds.

A beefed-up Chinese delegation

For Chinese attendees, COP28 will be the first normal UN climate conference since the pandemic began. At COP27 last year, outbound travel restrictions reduced China’s delegation to fewer than 80 people. By comparison, the largest delegation, from the United Arab Emirates, had 1,073. The China Office and China Corner were situated in a remote part of the conference venue, relatively far away from the media centre and side event stalls.

Humoured, Xie Zhenhua remarked that the layout of the venue was arranged by the organisers, not individual countries: “My pedometer shows that I walk an average of more than 13,000 steps a day … I don’t want to walk so far either, but I take it as my daily exercise.”

Xie will continue to lead the Chinese delegation this year, which is likely to comprise more people than in Egypt. Chinese non-governmental organisations and enterprises of all kinds have also expressed enthusiasm about participating in the conference and rebooting international exchanges.

Yao Zhe’s organisation, iGDP, will participate as part of civil society in the side events hosted at the China Pavilion. The themes of this year’s events include climate investment and finance, mitigation, adaptation, and digital transformation. There will be a special session for businesses and industries, hosted by provinces and cities that are making rapid progress in mitigation and adaptation, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Private companies including LONGi, Tencent, Alibaba and Vanke will be in attendance.

The pavilion will also host a day themed around renewable energy, inviting domestic energy enterprises to share China’s experience in solar and wind power and hydrogen storage, according to a report in The Paper. Yao points out that this reflects how Chinese companies, both state-owned and private, are paying more attention to climate change, and showing more commitment to providing solutions.

“The Chinese delegation is very willing to show the international community the progress of China’s domestic action on climate change and low-carbon transition,” she adds.

This article was originally published on China Dialogue with the title “COP28 Preview: China in the World’s Spotlight” and has been reproduced under the Creative Commons BY NC ND licence.

The post What is China’s role at the COP28 climate change conference? appeared first on Focus - China Britain Business Council.

In recent years, the concept of reproductive climate concerns has gradually ignited public debate and attracted academic attention around the world. The issues fall under the umbrella of “eco-reproductive concerns”, along with issues such as ecosystem collapse, pollution, health and justice.

Reproductive climate concerns are being widely discussed not just in developed nations like the US, UK and Australia, but increasingly among young people in developing countries such as India, the Philippines and Brazil.

In 2021, a survey of over 10,000 young people in ten countries was conducted by universities and research institutes, including Bath and Stanford universities. The results show that the climate crisis is causing serious mental distress to young people, with 41% hesitant to have children.

If I have a child whom I love, yet at the same time the world keeps getting worse… I don’t know if I’d regret bringing the child into this world — Zi Xuan, 26, unsure whether to have children

Reproductive climate concerns are also gradually emerging among younger Chinese people. At the end of 2020, Fu Xiyao, Matthew Schneider-Mayerson and Marvin Joseph F. Montefrio used an online questionnaire to survey 173 people in China who were concerned or alarmed about climate change. Most of the respondents were urban residents and women between 21 and 35, the majority of whom had at least a bachelor’s degree, and one-fifth of whom were already parents.

Although the survey was targeted only at climate-concerned or -alarmed citizens, the study is the first to explore the multiple associations and influences between climate change and reproductive choice among young Chinese, and shed light on their perception of, thoughts about, and actions around climate change.

Multiple reproductive concerns about climate change

In January 2023, the China Meteorological Administration said that the climate in China during 2022 was clearly anomalous, with numerous extreme weather events. The temperatures in summer reached record highs, but there were also frequent autumnal cold snaps. While total overall precipitation decreased nationally, torrential rainstorms were still common, leading to disastrous flooding in southern and north-eastern China. In summer 2021, the country witnessed heavy rainstorms in Henan, while in 2022 a continuous heatwave swept over most of China, alongside extensive, historic drought in the Yangtze River Basin.

Climate change is and will increasingly exacerbate air pollution, disease outbreaks, drought, flooding, and the melting of glaciers, among other consequences. Reproductive climate concerns are based on people’s perceptions of and expectations for the future. Nearly 30% of respondents to the survey reported being “very concerned” or “extremely concerned” with the climate impacts their children or potential children might witness or experience. One-third (34.1%) said climate change was a “major factor” affecting their reproductive choices, while two-thirds (61.8%) said it was a “minor factor”. Only 3.4% said that climate change had “no impact at all” on their reproductive choices. Participants were more concerned about the potential future impacts of climate change on their children than about the impact of having children on the environment.

The objects of young Chinese people’s reproductive climate concerns can be put into three main categories: degradation of future living environments; threat to physical and mental health; and indirect social, political and economic consequences.

Firstly, they worry that ecological and climatic changes will render the world increasingly uninhabitable for their children. One 23-year-old graduate student said: “Extreme weather will become even more common, and [I] don’t want my children living in a world of heatwaves, or bitter cold, or days without the sun.” While a respondent from Shanghai said: “There must be a way to mitigate the carbon footprint of giving birth and raising a child, and this should be constantly explored. But in the future my children will have to face huge climate crises and environmental changes, and I worry if they’ll be able to adapt to such a society, or avoid diseases caused by pollution.”

The health of my parents’ generation was affected by industrial pollution and environmental damage. I chose to leave my hometown but… climate change is a global issue. When the nest is upset, no egg is left intact — Chen Feng, 40, father of one

Regarding the effects of climate change on physical and mental health, many respondents mentioned the personal impact of pollution on themselves and their parents. Chen Feng, 40, from Chengdu said: “Actually, the health of my parents’ generation was affected by industrial pollution and environmental damage. I chose to leave my hometown but, while local environmental problems can be avoided by relocating, climate change is a global issue. When the nest is upset, no egg is left intact.”

For many respondents, environmental pollution is either a current problem or a recent memory. So the ecological or environmental degradation that might accompany climate change fills them with fear and anxiety for their children’s prospects. When considering the world his own potential child would live in, Zhang Yong, a civil servant from Guangdong, is worried about “the impact of rising temperatures on the ecological environment, as well as ecological imbalance and a succession of novel diseases.”

Some respondents also worried that climate change could create or worsen social and political crises. Zilong, a 31-year-old consultant and father, wrote: “The indirect impacts of climate change, such as on biodiversity or food security, could well trigger inter-state conflicts. My child’s generation is likely to be affected.” A university student from Beijing believes that in a future of climate change “international, geopolitical conflicts will become increasingly intense, with diseases and resource scarcity caused by the environmental crisis possibly becoming the core of conflicts.”

Taken together, respondents show concern that climate change will directly or indirectly affect every facet of both natural and social environments, becoming a factor that cannot be overlooked when raising children.

Some respondents said that, in the face of multiple health, ecological and social crises, it would be difficult to bring children into the world responsibly. Zi Xuan, 26, said: “If I have a child whom I love, yet at the same time the world keeps getting worse… I don’t know if I’d regret bringing that child into this world.”

Ziyu, 27, works in impact investment and said: “Children may complete your life, but that’s your life. What about your children’s? Perhaps we should reconsider having children, if our legacy to them is one of conflict, disasters, disease, and manifold unknown threats and risks to society. Especially if someone like myself, who cares about climate change and even works in the field, cannot lead by example and contribute to reducing emissions. Then how much hope is there for the world?”

Picturing 2050

Climate change scenarios over the next few decades are closely linked to national plans for emissions reduction and adaptation measures, but the prevailing global situation is grim. Current worldwide government plans to reduce emissions will lead to average global temperatures rising by 2.4C to 2.6C, far above the “safe” limit of 1.5C agreed in Paris seven years ago, according to estimates by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The survey asked an open-ended question to gauge respondents’ expectations for the future: “What do you think the world will be like in 2050?” Out of 138 valid responses collected in 2020, 28.3% were positive, 22.5% mixed or neutral, and 49.3% predominantly negative.

Many of the positive replies mentioned technological development, policy changes, and increased public environmental awareness. A disease control and quarantine worker from Yunnan wrote that “with the swiftly developing economy, everything can be automated. Society is highly cultured, with everyone possessing at least basic awareness of environmental protection. There are more built environments than natural ones.” Mixed or neutral replies contained both positive and negative elements. A 31-year-old consultant from Shenzhen said that “less developed cities have pollution and waste problems, while developed cities are already transitioning to clean energy as they enter a phase of green growth.”

[Climate change] will only make [raising children] harder. Reproductive choice depends on economics and security, but these are also affected by climate change — Wang Qiang, 38, would like to have children

Among the negative descriptions, Chen Yanping, a 38-year-old consultant from Shanghai, describes his cyberpunk vision of the future: “Science and technology is pretty advanced but the wealth gap is increasing. Problems caused by ageing populations are even more pressing, all while global governance is unstable and there’s rapacious plundering of natural resources. Pollution is serious, artificial protection measures are widespread, mass extinctions events are growing.”

Emma, a 27-year-old investor, described the potential social upheaval that could occur in a crisis: “Climate change ought to be the main global concern in 2050. I think the world’s population will have already decreased a lot by then, and economies will be severely affected by the growing number of people fleeing disasters and climate change. I always imagine the world will already be burning by then, and there’ll be a huge change in society and lifestyle. People’s attention will be forced away from mobile phones and social media and onto real society.”

What actions can an individual take?

Climate change is not the principal factor influencing young Chinese people’s reproductive choices. Over half the respondents cited childcare time, resources, and family income in determining whether and how many children to have. Only 22% cited environmental pollution, and 15.6% cited climate change.

However, climate change’s impact on social, economic and health factors might indirectly influence reproductive considerations. A 35-year-old human resources manager in Shanghai commented: “I feel that instead of saying ‘choice’, we can go one step further and ask whether climate change fundamentally impacts fertility. Living in Shanghai, I have an irregular work schedule, insufficient exercise, and too much pressure which, alongside environmental problems and late marriage, can all lead to fertility problems.”

In other words, between climate change and reproductive choice, there are multiple interconnected factors which influence each other, and these are likely to grow over time. Yun Xi, a 28-year-old sustainable development consultant said: “I’d say environmental factors certainly affect me. My current attitude [to having children] is to ‘wait and see’, though I have an uneasy feeling that either our generation or the next will see the whole world get cancer. I don’t want to leave such a planet for my children, nor leave so many children for the planet.”

At the same time, reproductive choice itself might influence people’s actions towards environmental issues and climate change. “When you have a baby, you definitely think about the next generation. I hope that through the efforts of this generation, we’ll be able to at least maintain things as they are now, and not let them deteriorate,” wrote a 29-year-old entrepreneur.

Despite the fact that climate change figures in the reproductive concerns of many, very few respondents believed that having fewer or no children is effective in tackling climate change. The majority believed that, compared with actions on an individual level, those of countries and corporations have a greater impact on climate, and thus they should be bearing responsibility for tackling climate change. As stated by a 22-year-old university student: “For a child born into a moderate family, the environmental burden of childrearing is negligible when compared with big business or macro policies.” When asked who should bear the greatest responsibility for addressing climate change, over 60% of respondents ranked “government” first, and over 40% ranked “business” second. Only 15% and 12% ranked “individuals” first and second respectively.

Of the three climate actions considered most effective at the individual level, almost half of respondents chose recycling and reducing waste. Fewer than one-third chose purchasing products with a smaller carbon footprint, or making dietary adjustments, while around one-fifth chose promoting sustainable development through their own efforts, or by using energy-efficient appliances. By comparison, only 3.4% selected having a smaller family.

While government and business are widely believed to bear most of the responsibility for addressing climate change, young people have not given up on individual initiative. In the face of huge uncertainties brought about by climate change, and the resultant reproductive concerns, they are seeking change through their lifestyles, consumption habits, and even their careers. They are exploring what it means to live sustainably, and what different futures could be possible. In the Anthropocene, how top-down systemic change and bottom-up individual action can work in tandem to mitigate and adapt to climate change is an important subject to which our responses will directly impact the next generation’s survival and wellbeing.

This article was originally published on China Dialogue under the Creative Commons BY NC ND licence.

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“At about 2pm, the sky went dark and water started leaking into the office. Heavy rain and flood warnings started to appear on Weibo and some of my colleagues put on their waterproofs and went home to check on their families. At the time, I had no idea how serious the situation would get,” recalls one eyewitness who lived through the Zhengzhou floods in July 2021.

Between 17 and 20 July, rainfall in the city broke all records since the Zhengzhou meteorological bureau had been set up in 1951. Chinese scientists have concluded that climate change made the rain significantly heavier.

The downpour did not arrive out of the blue. According to Beijing News, city and county meteorological bureaus in Henan issued 1,184 warnings. On 20 July alone, the Zhengzhou bureau issued 10 red rain warnings. They contained guidance that: government and other bodies should take appropriate preparatory and rescue measures; gatherings should be cancelled with students and workers sent home; and measures should be taken to prevent or respond to floods and mudslides.

But the warnings did not have the intended effects. The city government did not tell workplaces and schools to close, and a recommendation to “stagger commute times” only came after most people had arrived at work. Measures to reduce risks on the subway and in road and rail tunnels came late. As a result, 380 people died or went missing in Zhengzhou, according to a State Council investigation, with the death toll rising to 398 province-wide.

This highlights the importance of early warning systems and preparedness measures for extreme weather. If we think of “sponge cities” and levees as the hardware of climate adaptation, then the emergency response systems and risk awareness lacking in Henan are its software.

In June 2022, the central government published its National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035, which calls for a climate-adapted society to be “basically completed” by that year. When compared to the first such strategy, published in 2013, the new version emphasises the importance of monitoring, early warning and risk management. It also stresses building communication and performance assessment systems, and improving cross-departmental cooperation. In other words, the update places more focus on the software.

Now, Chinese cities and communities need to figure out how to put that in place.

Early warning systems: Guangdong’s 31631 model

Unlike landlocked Henan, coastal Guangdong is used to dealing with typhoons and heavy rain. Shortly after the Henan floods, the central government promoted a “progressive rain warning system” already in use in Shenzhen and Guangdong nationwide. Known as “31631”, each number indicates the time between warnings before an extreme weather event. So, 3 days in advance, a weather forecast is published; 1 day before, the relevant bureau identifies areas expected to be affected and narrows down the timeframe; 6 hours prior, high-risk areas are identified; 3 hours in advance, those areas are refined; and 1 hour before, a final warning names the streets likely to be affected.

The advantage of this approach is that it sets expectations. When the authorities receive the first warning, they know what is coming and can make necessary preparations. The system was used prior to heavy rain in June 2020. When the second warning was issued, the Shenzhen government published guidance on preparing for the rain and its effects. At the fourth warning, subway managers and other authorities put emergency plans into action. The fifth warning announced a citywide closure of schools. While flooding did occur, deaths were averted.

That case shows the importance of close cooperation between the meteorological authorities and government departments, to make sure warnings are given and acted on rapidly and effectively. In the China Meteorological Administration’s instructions for weather warnings, each level (blue, yellow, orange and red) comes with preparedness guidance. For example, in response to a red rain warning, the guidelines recommend “cancelling indoor and outdoor gatherings and closing schools and workplaces”.

But national-level guidelines aren’t enough. More detailed rules and advice are needed at the local level. At a seminar on climate change in the Pearl River Delta region, Du Yaodong, chief technical officer for the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, explained that provincial emergency management rules published in 2010 specify that the meteorological authorities will publish weather warnings. Further rules in 2014 established that when a yellow, orange or red typhoon warning or a red rain warning is issued, schools should close and non-essential employees should adjust their working hours or go home.

Guangdong government departments work together to respond to extreme weather. The meteorological bureau has worked with the education and labour authorities to put in place automatic school closures when typhoons hit, with accompanying guidelines; and to write into all labour contracts clauses on workplace closures during high-level warnings. The bureau also worked with the transportation authorities on a weather warning response mechanism, and with subway managers to create a set of warnings specific to the subway.

From warnings to action: challenges ahead

The most challenging part of this process is turning warnings into action. The first obstacle is a lack of awareness about how extreme weather risks are increasing due to climate change. Reporting on the Zhengzhou floods showed that city residents hadn’t paid attention to the weather warnings and didn’t know what the precipitation figures signified. It is particularly easy for those who live in inland cities to assume they won’t see catastrophic rainfall and so ignore warnings.

But He Xin, director of environmental projects at the Guangdong Harmony Foundation, told China Dialogue that things are different in her province. “People in Guangdong are alert to typhoon and rain warnings and know how to protect their homes during a typhoon. But they are less likely to take note of warnings of high temperatures, even though heat is also dangerous. Some older people are reluctant to use air conditioning even when a warning is in effect, which can trigger cardiovascular problems and potentially result in deaths.”

We often say the public lack awareness, but actually officials and workers at the grassroots need better knowledge of climate risks — He Xin, director of environmental projects at the Guangdong Harmony Foundation

A lack of awareness of climate risks can mean emergency measures are taken less seriously. He Xin says that emergency response requirements are often treated lightly at the grassroots level.

“For example, under the guidelines, outdoor public spaces should have been closed during last year’s Tropical Storm Ma-on. Some places closed them for half a day, others for a full day or two days. What actually happened was often down to the individual choices of grassroots officials.” She adds: “We often say the public lack awareness, but actually officials and workers at the grassroots need better knowledge of climate risks. There’s a lot of work to be done educating people.”

Another challenge is the complexity of implementing cross-departmental adaptation measures. He Xin says: “Community adaptation measures are overseen by different departments. The meteorological authorities do weather warnings. Emergency management authorities handle floods. Illnesses arising from heatwaves are the responsibility of the disease control authorities.”

Guo Jiangwen, a senior research fellow at London thinktank Chatham House, emphasises the importance of joined-up action. Recognising that the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035 was coproduced by 17 government departments, she says: “Implementation at the local level must also be a process of cross-departmental joint action. Local capacity building by one department won’t be enough. Multiple bodies – environmental protection, emergency services, transport, health – all need to be involved.”

Specific policies are needed to refine national strategy into local action and crisis management. In September, and following on from the publication of the national strategy in June, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment published a guide to drafting provincial climate adaptation plans. It was designed to help provincial governments create action plans to tackle major issues within their jurisdictions. That process has not yet filtered down to the community level. Residents still need more specific policy guidance.

He Xin offers an example. After the floods in Zhengzhou, the local government ordered electricity distribution rooms be moved above ground to avoid flooding. That might sound simple, but it requires the relocation of electricity cables and neighbourhood committees can’t manage those changes to infrastructure. Without policy support, it can’t be done at the community level.

He Xin thinks a single government body should take the lead, organising and pushing forward with work. She explains that at the grassroots level, work is carried out by neighbourhood committees, village committees and “social work service stations”, which organise community activities. “It is easier to make progress in some communities than in others. For example, in some “urban villages”, populations can be very mixed and so cross-departmental coordination is needed to get things done. If one department can take the lead and manage the work, everyone will be better able to work together and solve problems.”

Preparedness should be based on an evaluation of climate risks. Some countries already have mature systems in place for evaluating those risks: the UK has published a Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years since 2012, according to a 2021 China–UK report. That assessment identifies potential risks climate change will cause to different regions of the UK and estimates their scale and severity. Those assessments then inform the UK’s National Adaptation Programmes. “Adaptation needs to be based on scientific risk assessments,” Guo Jiangwen says. “In China, we’re just starting to assess climate risks. But the task is being taken more seriously and the new National Strategy stresses its importance. In the future, climate risk assessments will inform spatial planning, urban zoning and planning for social and economic development as a whole.”

Can the 31631 model be applied nationwide?

A month after the July 2021 floods, Zhengzhou again saw heavy rainfall. This time, the city put the 31631 model into action, and the public security authorities, city managers, healthcare providers and emergency services worked together. Workplaces and schools closed and public transport shut down using a “full closure” approach.
While that worked, it will take time to see if the model can be successfully replicated across China. Guo Jiangwen warns that local circumstances need to be considered. Other cities can study the Guangdong model but should also adjust or innovate according to their own needs.

“Take sponge cities as an example. We can’t just replicate the trials already done, as there’s lots of room for improvements,” she says. “Different regions have different types of risks, at different severities. Adaptation and mitigation measures need to take the local infrastructure and resources into account.”

Climate change means that extreme weather events such as the Zhengzhou floods will become more frequent. Adaptation to that involves systemic change – from national strategies to urban climate resilience, to risk awareness and emergency responses at the community level.

“Currently, policy only looks at the provincial level. City and community level policy hasn’t caught up yet,” says He Xin. “Adaptation should be both a top-down and bottom-up process. We must combine information from both ends to ensure effective policy decisions.”

This article was originally published on China Dialogue under the Creative Commons BY NC ND licence.

Call +44 (0)20 7802 2000 or email enquiries@cbbc.org now to find out how CBBC’s market research and analysis services can provide you with the information you need to succeed in China.

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Understanding the Chinese market can require a complex combination of experience, data, insights and industry contacts. But beyond analysis, there is a relatively banal subject that can greatly impact consumer behaviour and how they choose to spend their money – the weather.

The influence of the weather is something many China analysts track closely. For example, this year, many have noted that China’s National Climate Center has forecast extra frigid conditions for the country. The mercury will be lower than normal in the northern, northeastern and northwestern parts of the country (which already frequently see temperatures dip as low as -20 to -40°C), and even in southerly provinces like Guangdong.

Interest in the weather is not unique to China consumer analysts; in any country, colder weather can impact people’s moods and make them less likely to get out and spend. It can also change the way people do spend, providing a further boost to already surging e-commerce sales and other digital behaviours.

In many cases, components of a marketing plan can be tweaked to better accommodate frosty conditions. It can sway which products and formats we buy, from fashion to food and beverage, to the health and beauty products we seek. For example, consumers may seek out immune-boosting health supplements to fend off cold and flu outbreaks driven by the colder weather.

Last winter’s snow sports boom (stimulated, of course, by the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing) is likely to gather further momentum, and there will be opportunities for brands that make winter sports clothing or equipment, as well as hospitality brands with venues in popular winter sports destinations such as Heilongjiang and Jilin Province. On the other hand, consumers will be less likely to partake in recently popular hobbies such as camping and cycling. Communications that empathise with consumers over the weather through a clever, funny or emotional lens can help strengthen their connection to and preference for your brand.

When determining hero products and communications, the vast differences in weather conditions between cities and provinces further reiterates the importance of localising and targeting regionally. Consumers won’t need the same degree of outerwear in Shanghai as Shenyang, for example, and will be swayed by different products, messaging and imagery. Beauty buyers looking to protect their face from skin-chappingly dry winters in Beijing are likely to be looking for thicker, more moisturising creams than those in more humid, warmer Guangzhou.

The frosty winter comes on the back of a Chinese summer which registered its hottest August since records began and one of its lowest levels of rainfall in 61 years. These severe swings between the intense summer and the winter ahead will only convince more Chinese consumers of the threat of climate change. China is among the most at-risk countries in the world, with 85% of the population exposed to climate-related hazards by mid-century according to the UN. Yet, Chinese consumers aren’t as concerned as you may expect according to an international study by Gallup. Just 20% of people in China saw climate change as a “very serious threat” in 2021, down from 23% in 2019. The figure was 48.7% globally.

Nevertheless, many Chinese consumers – especially urban Gen Z – are taking note of the need to live more sustainably to help mitigate climate change. Some predict that this could start to have an impact on shopping festivals like Singles’ Day this year, and brands should keep this in mind when planning marketing and promotional activities going forward. Any sustainability initiatives should be sincere and backed by concrete evidence/actions or consumers may accuse them of greenwashing.

The two key takeaways for this are to consider whether there could be areas of your marketing plan worth tweaking to factor in the anticipated colder winter than usual; and how environmental and sustainability messaging differs in China from other parts of the world.

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