As Trump’s tariff-based trade war with China continues, which Chinese cities are the most exposed? So far, coastal and border Chinese cities seem the most vulnerable to tariff risks, while inland provinces are emerging as resilient trade nodes
As global trade frictions resurface, particularly with renewed threats of tariff escalation targeting Chinese exports, understanding the regional distribution of trade reliance across China becomes increasingly important. While China’s national export performance remains resilient, with Q1 2025 exports rising 6.9% year-on-year to RMB 6.13 trillion (841.22 billion), the degree of exposure to foreign trade varies significantly across provinces. Some regions, especially those built on high-volume manufacturing and cross-border trade, are far more vulnerable to external shocks than others.
Trade dependency, typically measured as the ratio of a region’s total imports and exports to its GDP, provides a useful proxy for assessing tariff sensitivity. A high dependency ratio often reflects dynamic integration into global markets, but it also signals heightened exposure to geopolitical volatility and trade barriers.
Cities such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Jinhua (home to Yiwu) routinely record foreign trade volumes that exceed their total economic output. Meanwhile, border cities like Chongzuo in Guangxi have become critical nodes in China’s land-based trade with Southeast Asia. These areas stand at the forefront of new trade frictions, bearing the brunt of policy uncertainty, shipping disruptions, and shifting global demand.
This article by China Briefing examines which provinces and key industrial cities are most reliant on foreign trade, explores how sectoral composition shapes tariff vulnerability, and reviews the latest local and national policy responses aimed at mitigating external pressure. As China continues to navigate an increasingly fragmented global trading system, regional disparities in trade exposure will shape both the risk profile and resilience of the country’s export-driven economy.
Trade dependency ratio as a risk indicator
In the context of escalating global trade tensions, the trade dependency ratio – defined as the total value of imports and exports relative to a region’s GDP – serves as a critical metric for assessing exposure to external economic shocks. While high trade dependency often signals strong global integration and export competitiveness, it also points to greater vulnerability to tariff-related disruptions, especially when value chains are heavily dependent on foreign demand or imported inputs.
Provincial-level trade reliance
Across China, provinces along the eastern and southern coastlines display the highest trade dependency ratios. Guangdong, for instance, recorded over RMB 2.09 trillion (US$286.81 billion) in exports in Q1 2025 alone, powered by its manufacturing giants in Shenzhen and Dongguan. Jiangsu and Zhejiang also maintain substantial exposure, with both provinces ranking among the top three in terms of absolute export volume and consistently exceeding national averages in trade-to-GDP ratios.
Notably, trade-driven inland provinces like Sichuan and Chongqing have seen rising dependency as they integrate into transnational value chains and Belt and Road logistics corridors. While their overall trade volumes remain lower than the coastal heartlands, the rapid pace of growth, particularly in electronics and automotive parts, signals emerging exposure that warrants closer monitoring.
City-level manufacturing and export hubs
Within these provinces, specific cities exhibit outsized roles in foreign trade relative to their economic scale. Shenzhen and Dongguan remain core export engines, with each city’s trade volume exceeding local GDP in some years. Yiwu, under the jurisdiction of Jinhua in Zhejiang province, is another key player, specialising in small commodities and maintaining strong links with markets across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
Further inland, Chongzuo in Guangxi has emerged as a vital land port for ASEAN trade, especially under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While often overlooked in national trade discussions, these city-level nodes are acutely exposed to changes in border policies, shipping rates, and tariff structures.
As a result, both provincial and sub-provincial data are indispensable when evaluating who stands to lose or adapt the most in the face of shifting global trade policies. With Q1 2025 showing a record RMB 10.3 trillion (US$1.41 trillion) in total trade volume and a 6.9 percent growth in exports despite softer global demand, the stakes remain high for regions that have long staked their economic strategies on cross-border commerce.
Trade war scenarios: Which regions and industries are most exposed?
As global geopolitical tensions continue to shape trade dynamics, a key consideration for businesses and policymakers is understanding which regions and sectors within China are most vulnerable to tariff escalation or regulatory headwinds. Assessing export composition and market orientation at the provincial level provides a clearer picture of risk exposure under potential trade war scenarios.
Provinces with economies heavily reliant on specific high-risk export categories – such as consumer electronics, auto parts, and textiles – tend to face heightened exposure to trade frictions. Moreover, regions with a significant proportion of exports destined for the United States or the European Union are particularly susceptible to tariff shocks or non-tariff barriers.
Guangdong: High sensitivity to the US market and the electronics sector
Guangdong, long considered China’s export powerhouse, exemplifies a high-risk profile. Its robust electronics manufacturing base and deep integration with US-facing supply chains make it acutely sensitive to tariff changes. In particular, the province’s concentration in consumer electronics and components – industries commonly targeted in trade disputes – means that even marginal increases in trade barriers could yield outsized economic impacts.
Zhejiang: Regulatory friction for small commodity trade
Zhejiang, especially through its key city of Jinhua and the trading hub of Yiwu, leads in the export of small commodities. While diversification is relatively strong, the nature of these goods – often low-margin and dependent on streamlined customs procedures – makes them vulnerable to new compliance burdens, such as origin tracing requirements or heightened inspection protocols. In the event of retaliatory tariffs or trade friction, Zhejiang’s light manufacturing sector may face disproportionate regulatory costs.
Fujian: Vulnerability in apparel and footwear
Fujian’s export structure is notably concentrated in labour-intensive industries such as footwear and apparel, particularly for Western markets. These sectors are typically among the first affected by protectionist measures and face increasing scrutiny around labour and environmental standards. In a climate of escalating trade tensions, Fujian-based manufacturers may need to explore production diversification or shift toward non-Western markets.
Inland Provinces: Lower exposure, growing strategic role
By contrast, inland provinces such as Sichuan and Chongqing are less dependent on traditional Western markets. Their integration into global supply chains is increasingly supported by diversified routes, particularly through the China-Europe Express and regional connectivity initiatives under the Belt and Road framework. These logistics corridors not only reduce geographic dependency but also enhance resilience against unilateral trade actions.
Strategic takeaways for exporters and investors
Amid evolving global trade dynamics and rising tariff risks, both businesses and policymakers face mounting pressure to adapt. The shifting geography of trade exposure, combined with China’s proactive policy environment, offers several strategic insights for stakeholders navigating this complex landscape.
Assess risk and diversify strategically
Export-oriented companies – particularly those concentrated in high-exposure coastal provinces or sectors like consumer electronics, apparel, and automotive components – should reassess their risk profiles:
Geographic exposure matters: Firms must evaluate how susceptible their operations are to region-specific vulnerabilities, including reliance on markets facing trade tensions (e.g., the US and EU) or industry-specific regulatory scrutiny.
Diversification is key: Developing alternative markets, leveraging multilateral agreements, and exploring underutilised logistics routes such as the China-Europe Railway Express can reduce overdependence on volatile bilateral corridors. Similarly, investing in digital trade channels and bonded warehouse solutions can increase operational flexibility and reduce customs friction.
Navigating today’s trade landscape demands a combination of operational agility and policy foresight. For exporters, this means understanding geographic and sectoral vulnerabilities, while for policymakers, it calls for structural investments that spread resilience more evenly across China’s vast economic landscape.
By taking a long-term view, stakeholders can better prepare for the shifting realities of global trade and secure a more stable position in the next phase of economic globalisation.
This post was originally publish by Dezan Shira & Associates’ China Briefing with the title Mapping tariff risk: Which Chinese cities are most exposed to foreign trade?
